An India-China thaw may be on the horizon if Modi is re-elected
The Indian Express
Prof. Syed Munir Khasru
February 10, 2026
Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-china-us-bangladesh-elections-bnp-awami-hasina-jamaat-10523946/
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Over the past decade, Bangladesh has emerged as South Asia’s second-largest economy. Its growing influence, however, is shaped by more than GDP alone. Anchoring the northern edge of the Bay of Bengal, the country underpins regional trade flows and overlooks one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors. Commanding nearly $20 billion in annual remittances and serving as one of the top contributors to UN peacekeeping operations, Bangladesh has leveraged its demographic weight into significant global diplomatic influence.
Bangladesh has experienced disputed polls before. However, the upcoming election on February 12 has been framed as a chance to rebuild confidence in electoral transparency and fairness. For more than one-and-a-half decades, the Awami League (AL) served as the central pillar of political continuity and governance in the country. With AL off the ballot, uncertainty has deepened over how the next government may shape both domestic policy and foreign relations.
Until former PM Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, India largely saw Bangladesh as a reliable regional ally. With a 4,000-kilometre border, the country stands as a strategic necessity. With persistent tension with Pakistan and a growing rivalry with China, India cannot afford instability in its eastern neighbourhood: Bangladesh anchors India’s Northeast and provides transit routes that reduce reliance on the narrow and vulnerable Siliguri Corridor.
The geographic interdependence is reflected economically as well. India has extended nearly $8 billion in lines of credit for Bangladeshi connectivity and ports while exporting about 1,160 MW of electricity. Recent attempts by India and Afghanistan to restart direct air cargo flights, after Pakistan closed access, further highlight how fragile regional trade can be. This reinforces why stable partners like Bangladesh matter more than ever.
Unlike India, China has no direct front door to the Indian Ocean. Its entire economy currently depends on the Strait of Malacca — a narrow, risky chokepoint. By deepening ties with Bangladesh, China gains a vital “escape hatch” to the Bay of Bengal. This gives China a more neutral and less crowded route for energy and trade, reducing old vulnerabilities and counterbalancing India’s regional influence.
Beyond maritime access, the bay strengthens China’s position as Bangladesh’s second-largest arms supplier. China has also hosted trilateral talks with Bangladesh and Pakistan, signalling a push to strengthen ties with India’s neighbours and expand its regional reach. This strategy shows up in Chinese-backed infrastructure and defence ties, like the Padma Bridge and BNS Pekua submarine base.
For the US, Bangladesh occupies a strategically important place in the Indo-Pacific. It is already a key trade partner, particularly in garments and textiles, with growing appeal for American businesses for diversification. Bangladesh’s large population and diplomatic standing further add to its relevance. Deepening naval cooperation highlights this shift. Bangladesh benefits from a stronger, more modern navy to protect its Blue Economy, while the US gains operational flexibility in a region where it lacks a permanent base.
This deeper engagement, however, comes with its own set of expectations. The US has been urging Bangladesh to scale back its reliance on China, placing the Bay of Bengal at the centre of this strategic push. Growing interest in port infrastructure under the Quad’s Ports for the Future initiative further underscores its rising strategic and commercial importance.
Bangladesh’s importance, therefore, lies in what it uniquely unlocks for each global power. For India, it is the hinge that secures the eastern subcontinent, providing vital transit and security. For China, it offers leverage against geography — a potential hub for trade and connectivity that limits any single power’s dominance. For the US, Bangladesh serves as a force multiplier, helping prevent China’s dominance in the region from becoming absolute.
Despite the said external ties, the absence of a governing anchor raises questions. Filling this vacuum are long-time rivals of the AL — the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, both launching their campaigns in late January.
BNP projects itself as a more moderate, nationalist alternative with a liberal economic outlook, while Jamaat represents a religious right-wing platform with distinct social priorities. Reflecting this shift, India quietly engaged with BNP and Jamaat since late 2025, while the US met Jamaat leaders in early 2026 and kept channels open with all major opposition parties, including BNP.
Who emerges dominant will do more than just form a government. It will influence how Bangladesh navigates its ties with said three nations. While each capital brings its own set of interests to the table, all are likely to favour stability above all else. The outcome, therefore, extends beyond domestic politics to shape the wider regional order. That is why the ballot boxes in Bangladesh are being watched far beyond its borders.