As Sheikh Hasina gears up to visit India, here’s what’s on the table between India and Bangladesh

Nikkei Asia
Prof. Syed Munir Khasru
February 14, 2026

https://asia.nikkei.com/opinion/can-a-new-government-finally-turn-bangladesh-around
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After 17 years without credible elections, Bangladesh’s Feb. 12 national poll was about more than choosing leaders. It was a bid to restore a basic contract between the state and its citizens.

With the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman, son of recently deceased former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and late President Ziaur Rahman, getting a sweeping win, expectations are high — and the stakes unusually heavy for the world’s eighth most populous country. The BNP, which presents itself as a liberal, centrist alternative, defeated Jamaat-e-Islami, a right-wing and religiously conservative party that played a controversial role in Bangladesh’s war of liberation.

That optimism is fueled as much by the BNP’s resurgence as by deep fatigue with the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. Her party oversaw three flawed national elections, in 2014, 2018 and 2024, that were marred by vote rigging and were largely non-participative. However, her long rule delivered some positive economic outcomes as gross domestic product growth peaked at more than 8% in 2019, and by 2021, per capita income climbed to $2,227, briefly overtaking India. This was anchored by a flourishing ready-made garment sector, driving female labor participation to 36.3% by 2017 and closing the gender pay gap by more than 70%. Internet penetration increased almost 100-fold, shifting the country’s developmental trajectory.

These developments came at a heavy cost to democracy. Harassment of opposition leaders, human rights violations and restricted press freedom weakened democratic credentials. Most notably, was the imprisonment of Hasina’s main political rival Zia, who died last month after prolonged illness during her incarceration. Thousands of activists were jailed, disappeared, reported missing, or found dead. There was also industrial-scale corruption and a reported almost $234 billion siphoned out of the country.

Years of democratic dysfunction culminated in the ouster of Hasina through a student-led uprising. She was replaced by an interim government led by Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus, which set the stage for Thursday’s election. With the Awami League barred from participation, its historic rivals and once political allies, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, emerged as the two forces vying for leadership.

For young voters, largely under 30 and accounting for around 25% of the electorate, it was their first vote. Free from inherited party loyalties, Gen-Z prioritizes jobs, digital freedom and real accountability. A landmark referendum on the “July Charter,” a package of political reforms initiated under the interim government, was on track to pass. The winning party will now be under pressure to deliver the reforms it publicly supported.

Beyond politics, Bangladesh’s underlying forte remains intact, and unlocking that potential requires a pragmatic reset. Domestically, the biggest test lies in rebuilding a state weakened by years of one-person, authoritarian rule that hollowed out the executive, parliament and judiciary. Any path to reconciliation will require acknowledgment of past wrongdoings — reversing course for good for a nation that has been backsliding on its democratic credentials in the last 35 years of parliamentary democracy. The recent political transition triggered a rise in mob justice and extrajudicial violence, exposing security failures. Governance weaknesses are also reflected in the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, where Bangladesh ranked 151st globally. Restoring public trust hinges on the reassertion of law and order and tackling entrenched corruption across the state.

While exports and remittances provide a safety net, structural weakness prevents long-term investment. A credible rebound strategy focused on diversification and productivity is urgent. The student uprising was a clear wake-up call for jobs, yet the merit-based hiring reforms remain unfulfilled. With youth unemployment twice the national average, the government will be sitting on a powder keg unless it prioritizes job creation and skills training. Other immediate priorities include taming double-digit inflation and stabilizing a banking sector crippled by nonperforming loans, now exceeding 35%.

Strategically, Bangladesh’s location and population — it has more people than Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar and Cambodia combined — gives it outsized importance. For years, India enjoyed a “golden era” under Hasina’s government, with expanded transit and security cooperation. While relations have been strained since the ouster of Hasina — she is now sheltered by New Delhi — the new government will need to reboot ties with its closest neighbor.

China remains indispensable as Bangladesh’s second-largest source of military equipment and partner for large-scale infrastructure project support. A new U.S. trade deal signed in Washington on Feb. 9 has halved tariffs on Bangladeshi exports from 37% to 19% and Bangladesh garment exports made of American cotton and synthetic fibers enjoy a zero reciprocal duty. Bangladesh will purchase 25 Boeing aircraft worth about $2.87 billion, along with $3.5 billion in U.S. agricultural goods and an estimated $15 billion in U.S. energy imports.

The country will have to tread a careful path among regional and geopolitical rivals with all vying for competing ends and spreading spheres of influence.

After years of concentrated power and weakened institutions, expectations are high for a functional democracy that delivers goods and services to the people, while at the same time upholding good governance and rule of law.

While a single election cannot dismantle the deep-seated fractures, the poll will determine whether Bangladesh can reclaim democratic legitimacy and economic stability or slide further into a downward spiraling cycle of political instability and economic uncertainty.